Raul Castro and Israel-Cuban Relations

Jerusalem-Havana Hostility Re US Alliances

Now that Fidel Castro has stepped down, what does it mean for Israel-Cuban relations?

In 1961, about 500 Jewish Cubans secretly left their island and flew to Israel on 3 planes to start new lives in the Jewish homeland. Once the Jews disembarked, the planes were serviced, cleaned and loaded with dozens of sheep - a gift from the Kibbutz Movement to the government of Cuba - then turned around and headed back to Havana.

The operation, kept secret for years, was a deal cooked up between Cuba's new revolutionary ruler Fidel Castro and the Jewish Agency, and reflects an underlying theme in Cuban-Israeli relations since Castro's rise to power: no real reason for the direct enmity which exists nonetheless, and which is expressed openly, because of each country's relations with the US.

The two nations have no territorial disputes and no "usual" reason two countries choose to be enemies. But due to geopolitical considerations, Havana and Jerusalem have no official diplomatic ties and are outwardly hostile to each other - a situation not likely to change in the immediate wake of Castro's resignation as Cuban President on Tuesday.

Castro let Arab terrorists train on his soil, deployed military advisers against Israel and embraced Yasser Arafat as a man he "deeply loved and admired." Israel has backed America in every UN General Assembly vote to maintain the economic embargo on Cuba, now in its 45th year.

But despite the acrimonious tone of their relations in public diplomatic forums, Israelis and Cubans have been quietly doing business for years, with at least one current Israeli minister, Rafi Eitan, having extensive business dealings in Cuba.

There are many Israeli companies doing business in Cuba, mostly in the agriculture and construction sectors. There is no reported anti-Semitism in Cuba, nor is there any personal hostility toward Israelis by the general population. For years, Israeli tourists have visited Cuba openly, and some Cuban tourists have come here.

Jewish aliya, facilitated by Castro's regime and the Jewish Agency, continues to this day, although the island's Jewish population of 1,500 is growing, and the Cuban authorities allow the Jews to import kosher food from Mexico and Canada.

Analysts, however, predict that not much will change in Cuba now that Fidel has officially stepped aside, pointing out that even though his brother Raul has been Cuba's de facto ruler for the past two years, he has not shown any significant signs that he will take the country in a new direction. This may be because Fidel is still alive, and his medical condition still leaves him capable of pulling the strings of power behind the scenes.

Hayim Hayat, a Cuban Jewish immigrant from the early '60s and a man who has kept in constant contact with Cuba's Jewish community since he left as head of the Jewish Agency's Hagshama department and through the World Zionist Organization, says Raul Castro, 76, may be considered less charismatic than his slightly older and more famous brother, but that doesn't mean Raul does not have full control of Cuba.

"People forget that Raul was there alongside his brother from the very start of the revolution and the fighting in the hills. Raul was a true Marxist and revolutionary from the beginning, whereas Fidel only became a Marxist during the struggle. Raul is a real revolutionary idealist and was so in his youth, and it is a mistake to call him 'just the brother of' and keep it at that," Hayat told The Jerusalem Post on Tuesday.

Raul Castro is known to be more introverted than his older brother, but analysts point out that since he has been the commander in chief of Cuba's armed forces from the start of Castro's reign, his hold on power in the country is entrenched and was consolidated years ago. Since Cuba only has one political party - the communist party - Raul's election to the presidency by the National Assembly in its meeting on Sunday is considered a done deal.

Other analysts predict slow, pragmatic reforms once Raul Castro formally takes over power, mostly in the economic sphere, with perhaps a slight relaxation on civil liberties issues. Cuba is billions of dollars in debt, is on the receiving end of a US economic embargo and is suffering harsh shortages of basic goods.

Raul's advisers are mostly younger officials who grew up and developed from within the revolution, and are a more pragmatic bunch than Fidel's inner circle.Cuba also has no global credit and thus relies heavily on middlemen.

Analysts are watching what the US presidential candidates say regarding the future of US-Cuban relations, as many voters in Miami, filled to the brim with Cuban exiles, will likely oppose normalization and a lifting of the economic embargo.

Florida is a key state on the US presidential campaign trail. Channel 10 Foreign News Editor Nitzan Horovitz says Raul Castro will not be able to hold Cuba together as a socialist nation and keep the revolutionary spirit alive, because that spirit was intimately connected to Fidel.