North Carolina and Indiana held the last two Democratic primaries large enough to meaningfully impact the numbers -- in terms of either delegates or popular vote. Not only did Clinton fail to accomplish either one, but Obama significantly increased his leads in both categories.
Tonight in Indiana, Clinton made what was, effectively, a graceful concession speech. Watching her demeanor - and that of Bill and Chelsea on the podium behind her - no one could possibly miss the fact that she now knows she cannot win the nomination.
(Perhaps someone forgot to call off the attack dogs like Howard Wolfson, who today spelled out an evermore tortured attempt to massage the numbers, but it should be clear to everyone now that there is no plausible scenario whereby Hillary can secure the nomination without fatally compromising the Democrat Party.)
Hopefully the ugly spectacle of this primary season hasn't been bad enough to tarnish Obama and obscure the fact that between him and John McCain there is absolutely no doubt about who is the better choice to be our next President. If we assume that America is still a sane and decent country, it should be safe to say that Barack Obama will be our next President. But those are two very big assumptions...




Comments
Re: Democratic Presidential Race: It's Over
By Brandon, May 7, 2008 at 10:35The remaining states include states like West Virginia, Oregon, Hawaii and non-state Puerto Rico. It's all Hillary country - no one is really debating that. The question is how much pledged delegate headway can she make up. Realistically, unless another anti-Semite from the Obama camp decides to speak up she won't catch up in pledged delegates, but she'll probably come close. This does not matter.
Her victories in every major state: Florida, New York, California, Massachuchets, Ohio, Indiana and Texas, demonstrate that she has the support of the major swing states. Superdelegates - and I'm really getting sick of giving out free lessons in the American political system to people who profess to know - don't decide where they stand until the convention.
Superdelegates, such as the over-publicized Ms. Brazile, choose based on who is positioned better to prevail in November. Superdelegates presently alotted to either sie are sufficient to swing the delegate total either way. Simple math people. The superdelegates will determine the outcome - as always.
For all it's talk the Democratic party is, in point of fact, not very democratic. But then again, it isn't the bastion of left-wing honesty and generousity that you people think it is. It's actually a hotbed of lying, cheating, whining, conniving guttersnipes who can't even beat GW Bush in an election after four years of tyranny, deceit, chaos and war.
Once it gets to the DNC it will be closer than it is now in pledged delegates. Polls at that time will emonstrate that Hillary is considered "more likely" to prevail over McCain in the General Election. The Rulings committee, heavily influenced by former powerhouses in the Democratic Party (Wesley Clark, Al Gore, Howard Dean and the most recent former President Bill CLINTON), will determine how to bring Florida and Michigan to the table. At this point Hillary will secure the nomination amongst much fanfare and contrition.
People will say Obama got hosed because he's African American. Others will say that Hllary cheated. All of it will come to nothing. McCain will oblierate her in the General. The Democratic Party continues to demonstrate a seemingly endless fortitude for self-destruction. But this should really make Obama supporters happy - if the Republicans turn their guns on that little weasely little lawyer, they'll burn him into cinders.
Re: Democratic Presidential Race: It's Over
By Melkor, May 7, 2008 at 09:55How is democracy served by the supporters of one candidate clambering for the other candidate to step down? If democracy is a system worth preserving (a big leap, but I’ll grant the point for now) should not the democratic process be followed? Should all the votes be cast or not? Or should process only be followed if your candidate is winning? Hillary should step down for the sake of the party, would not the same logic hold true for Obama? Yet he is the anointed messiah of the left (a man who has accomplished absolutely nothing politically except invent a catch phrase – I love the American people – style over substance in every part of that society, man is it funny). I love the left’s use of hyperbolic pejorative language (not that this is delegated to merely the left, yet it’s o.k. for them to call the sitting President a war criminal – I suppose most people have blocked out the last election which was a referendum on the Iraq war, but it is much easier to ignore that fiasco) it really negates the need for any sort of serious analysis – like who might stand a chance in the general election (neither of these two candidates, that is for sure, take it to the bank).
Re: Democratic Presidential Race: It's Over
By Brandon, May 7, 2008 at 09:40Clinton won Indiana and fared better than expected in NC.
She is behind in pledged delegates by about 147. She is ahead in superdelegates.
If she wins the remaining states (which is predicted) she can make up most of the difference in pledged delegates. She would ned to win by about 65 to 35 in order to tie in pledged delegates.
Superdelegates are not pledged and can be swayed at the convention. I repeat SUPERDELEGATES are not pledged.
Despite what this obviously OBLIVIOUS commentator has written the numbers are hardly even difficult for Hillary to make up. Even in a scenario where her dominance in Florida and Michigan is not counted (viva democracy), she can still win handily.
Obama has done well, but this race is hardly over - it's virtually tied! Any student of the political system in the US - and by this I mean someone who has at least a slight grasp on voting district, pledged delegates/ superdelegates, convention mechanics, the rulings committee, political influences and rudimentary math.
Obama supporters are trying to say it's over becuase they know if it goes to the DNC tied Hillary will win.
Listen - more importantly, how can you not count the votes? Seriously? This is an electoral process about NOT counting the votes? You don't want the votes to count? If the people in Florida and Michigan got to participate that owuld be bad? That's Obama's position? Please. What a prick. He knows he's lost if they're counted. Once again a slimy politician is trying to screw Florida out of honest participation.
Obama is no hero - he's a slimeball lawyer who talks in sweeping monologues that say nothing - and now he wants to subvert the democratic participation of two entire states - there's a real democrat.
Re: Democratic Presidential Race: It's Over
By Josh Sidman, May 7, 2008 at 14:45Hey Brandon,
Thanks for taking the time to comment on my "oblivious" comments. I must say that for a guy with a reasonably good command of the English language, you really don't seem very strong in terms of understanding political realities. I'm curious how you would back up your claim that even if Florida and Michigan are not counted Clinton can win handily. I'd love to see any kind of reasonable numerical analysis to back up this assertion.
And, hey, since you seem so confident of Clinton's ability to pull this thing out, would you care to put your money where your mouth is? I'm prepared to bet you any amount up to $10,000 (I'd be willing to bet more if I had it) -- and give you 2:1 odds to boot -- that Obama wins the Democratic nomination. If you're so sure of your analysis, you'd surely be willing to make some easy money off a sucker like me, especially one who is stupid enough to offer you such good odds.
I look forward to your response!
Josh
Re: Democratic Presidential Race: It's Over
By Melkor, May 7, 2008 at 15:35Is this legal? I hope Orato.com has a good lawyer (now that is funny - but an inside joke).
Re: Democratic Presidential Race: It's Over
By Brandon, May 7, 2008 at 15:17HAHA -
Awesome! This conversation just escalated to a measure much more satisfying.
Since we're dabbling in a somewhat undiscovered territory (online personal betting) let us make it a friendly margin - I suggest a simple $100 USD. I'll take you up on your 2:1 odds - I say Hillary gets the nomination, you say Barack gets it. Oh Orato people? Perhaps you can officiate... the loser submits a cheque to Orato Media for $100USD/ $200USD and Orato is to disseminate it from there. Agreed?
As for the math by which she could win it handily, one need only grant that she wins the remaining states , let's say 55 to 45 and picks up a small majority of those pledged delegates, closing that gap to a hundred or so, and then add the superdels.
Let me be more clear:
After the Rules Committe has either delivered Hillary the nomination (by including Florida and Michigan) or has alienated these two pivotal swing states into permanent Republicanism, the superdelegates will take measure of the field and as usual vote as a block. Those 250+ now on Barack's side will switch over - and Hillary will get the nomination. Or not. But you can see that it could happen quite easily, and the math is not at all ambiguous. There are numbers enough in the superdelegates to swing this back in Hillary's favour. Will it happen? Well, that's the fulcrum of our little bet sir.
Numbers at even this late stage are very deceiving. I have no doubt that CNN and the rest of the media have annointed Obama - so has everyone in Canada and elsewhere abroad. Unfortunately the Democratic Party hacks get the final say. Bill Clinton and his close posse still possess a great deal of influence - Wes Clark, Al Gore and Howard Dean are loud voices in the DNC. You'll see.
The truth is, I have nothing against Obama really. I just hate the media - and any friend of theirs... Besides, it's one thing to be leading, it's another to have won. I am simply stating that it is not over until, well, you know.
P.S. - I'd be still more aggressive but I've already wagered a lot on Hillary to get the nomination (and then on McCain to beat her in the general)...
P.P.S. - The only reason my girlfriend let's me do stuff like this is because I made huge coin by betting on Ratzinger to be the next pope... (I got him at 7:1 on Paddy Power)
Re: Democratic Presidential Race: It's Over
By Josh Sidman, May 7, 2008 at 19:40Hey Brandon,
Absolutely! I think your wager size is reasonable. We don't want anyone to get hurt too badly, right?
I seriously doubt Orato is going to be willing to officiate an wager, but we can see if we can work out the details.
While your scenario isn't logical impossible, I don't consider it at all probable. The sad truth is that the Democratic Party (largely as a result of its own incompetence) painted itself into a corner where some group(s) are going to feel like they got the shaft no matter what happens. While you're no doubt right that "disenfranchising" Florida and Michigan would piss a lot of people off, on the flip side, everyone who supported Obama would be outraged and alienated if the party "overrules the will of the voters" (whether or not you believe this is a factually accurate description of the situation, you cannot deny that this would be the widespread perception). So the party is damned if they do, damned if they don't.
What convinces me beyond a shadow of a doubt that things will go Obama's way (I consider myself to be robbing you by only giving you 2:1 odds, by the way) is that the number of people who would be alienated by tipping for Hillary is far larger than in the reverse case. In addition, if Obama is the victor there will not be a widespread perception that the status quo was overturned by the powers-that-be. If Clinton is given the nod, it will mean denying a candidate who everyone now perceives to be winning by virtually all metrics and who will continue to lead in both pledged delegates and popular vote under any likely circumstances. (Your scenario of Clinton winning ALL of the remaining primaries is simply not realistic. Most polls indicate that the remaining pledged delegates are likely to be split almost evenly.)
So, by all means, let's have a little fun! I wonder what I'm gonna buy with my $100...
Re: Democratic Presidential Race: It's Over
By Melkor, May 7, 2008 at 15:29That’s cool you responded to this – but Josh might as well as proclaimed his father’s superior strength to yours. Ah, lefty argument, so fun – it brings out the child in me (and evidently in you two).
Re: Democratic Presidential Race: It's Over
By Mike Small, May 7, 2008 at 10:12I respectfully disagree. Not only would Hilary have to win the majority of States left, she would have to dominate each and every one. Wins like last night in Indiana simply won't be enough.
Yes Hilary leads in superdelegates, but since Super Tuesday, Obama has picked up around 100 more at a 5 to 1 pace. You say they are virtually tied, but in fact, they are NOT. Obama has more pledged delegates, more states, and more popular votes. He is in the lead any way you spin it.
I agree with you that the Florida situation sucks, but that doesn't change the fact that they did break the rules. You didn't mention that Obama's name wasn't even on the ballot at the time, and that when Hilary was in the lead, she agreed that the votes shouldn't count. It was only until after she began to lose that all of a sudden she became a champion of 'Florida voters'. As for him trying to subvert the participation of two states, I don't think it was Obama who created the rules.
Obviously I don't agree with the statement that he's a slimeball lawyer who talks a lot but says nothing, that's your opinion. I would prefer him over a power hungry pathological liar and a Republican who is happy to continue the status quo of war and oil. Last time I checked, that hasn't worked out too well for the United States.
Re: Democratic Presidential Race: It's Over
By Mike Small, May 7, 2008 at 09:23I'm praying Hilary throws in the towel, but I don't have my hopes up. I think there will be plenty of wild eyed, pan suit wearing Hilary for a while longer. It's only a matter of time before someone in her party brushes off Barack's win in North Carolina because the high amount of black voters. If you don't believe me, watch as Keith Olbermann lists and endless number of statements from Clinton and her supporters about which states should count, and why.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/05/06/olbermann-slams-clinton-c_n_100...
Re: Democratic Presidential Race: It's Over
By Melkor, May 7, 2008 at 10:31Mike, what is wrong with pant suits? I notice no one comments on what the men are wearing. This is a tough row to hoe for a woman, that is for sure – not only do they have to be more familiar with issues (smarter), they have to pass some sort of litmus test regarding their wardrobe (look hot). Honestly, is this a level playing field? Not to worry, I’m not judging, I am however expecting a similar rip on Obama’s choice of tie.
Re: Democratic Presidential Race: It's Over
By Mike Small, May 7, 2008 at 10:35Haha you caught me, it's just my anti-Hilary bias showing through. I actually would have no problem supporting a woman running for office, just not Hilary. I am now on the look out for Obama's ties.
Re: Democratic Presidential Race: It's Over
By Melkor, May 7, 2008 at 10:45I suspected that was the reason (I would be interested in who you think would be qualified, I'm really hoping you won't mention that Polosi woman - perhaps the only being in the universe more divisive than Hillary). I’d be on the lookout for some combination of yellow shirt/tie with red shirt/tie. This combination belongs on a hotdog, not a person.
Re: Democratic Presidential Race: It's Over
By Brandon, May 7, 2008 at 10:45"I ... have no problem supporting a woman running for office." Just not the only one to ever run.
Awfully easy to say. I'm sure there'll be an excuse the next time too.
It's worth noting I think, that what's really demonstrated here is how anxious people get about having a woman run for president. I always thought Americans were more racist than sexist... I guess we'll see.
Re: Democratic Presidential Race: It's Over
By Mike Small, May 7, 2008 at 10:52haha please don't tell me why I choose not to support Hilary. Do I accuse you of not liking Obama because he's black? It's not a gender issue and it never will be for me.
Re: Democratic Presidential Race: It's Over
By Brandon, May 7, 2008 at 11:00Actually, you'd have to suggest I disliked Obama because he was a man... that'd be the equivalent. I didn't say you disliked Hillary because she was white. You see the distinction? I suggested you preferred the male candidate... so you should suggest I prefer the female candidate.. which I do, coincidentally.
Moreover, keep in mind that this is not a general election, but a primary - so race and gender are fair game in my opinion - the Democrats ought to pick someone that can win the general election. If they think, like you do, that having a woman run would be detrimental then, fair enough, put Obamer up there. If on the other hand, you think that an African American will get ABSOLUTELY OBLITERATED in every state south of the Dixie line then maybe put Clinton on the ticket.
These are considerations (however harsh and realpolitik) that the SUPERDELEGATES will definitely consider.
Re: Democratic Presidential Race: It's Over
By luyen, May 7, 2008 at 08:40I recently saw an old Robin williams movie called "man of the year" where he plays a comedian who ends up getting elected president (albeit by mistake), nonetheless people did vote for him because he stood out, he didn't just tow some party line, and use all the same lines.
If Barrack Obama is anything close to what he presents himself to be, I think a lot of change is coming to the white house...and it's in dire need of a shake up. I also worry that when an institution becomes what it has become, it will become difficult for change to happen, but let's hope!
Re: Democratic Presidential Race: Its Over
By Bud Oracle (not verified), May 6, 2008 at 22:56Josh, I've been watching American Politics since 1961. An it has been a series of great opportunities wasted in stupid, regressive, aggressive thinking.
Obama, is the hope for more than America!!!! There was a great show On Radio (I believe Sunday Edition http://www.cbc.ca/thesundayedition/) one, about 2 months ago, where people around the world who were interviewed are hoping that America will break with the past, and be born again. Redesigned for the future, more melanin in its skin to weather the deadly depleted Ozone (That's what I told my children about race/color-get more melanin into our offspring"s skin-sure enough I have some beautiful granchildren much darker than I.)
Other than turning GWB over to the world court in Geneva and let him stand for war crimes, the election of Obama would be the surest sign that America has turned a corner for the eyes of the world..
The USA surely owes it to the world to make their democracy work. I think that he might be the ticket to draw out a large part of 50% who generally stay home from voting (http://www.orato.com/health-science/2008/04/24/do-humans-have-political-...).
We need a balanced, from the rational middle type of leadership everywhere. I'm tired of the one horse and pony show republicans and their conflicted myopic foreign/economic and crime policies.
It's time to give the morons a vacation, isn't it?