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What Happens After Super Tuesday?

Super Tuesday, Caucus, election, presidential race

We forget that the next round could play a decisive role. AP Photo.
The results coming out of today's voting could be so close that no one emerges with an advantage. '
By Citizen Correspondent David Mixner
Date Posted: 02/05/08
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With all the focus on Super Tuesday, we tend to forget that the next round of state primaries and caucuses could play a decisive role in the selection of the Democratic nominee for President. The results coming out of today's voting could be so close that no one emerges with an advantage. Six months ago, almost everyone thought the game would be over today, but now it is quite possible that won't be the case. Of course, if either Senator Clinton or Senator Obama surges at the last minute and sweeps Super Tuesday, the primary topic of discussion will be how to get a good room at the convention.

So, assuming that there will be no rest for the weary, we have to forge on to the next stops on the campaign trail for February and early March. Here are the key states and my projections. Please feel free to leave your projections in the comment section. Originally published on DavidMixner.com.

February 9

Louisiana (68 Delegates): According to the last census, 33 percent of Louisianans were African American. Since Katrina, however, it has been hard to accurately gauge the state’s demographics. African Americans should contribute to a solid Obama base, but the breakdown of white vote breakdown will be key. With so many unknowns, it is just too close to call.

Washington (97 Delegates): With two female United States Senators and a large number of female state officials, Washington should lean towards Senator Clinton. Interestingly, Washington has more LGBT state legislators than any other state in the country, and they could play an important role for either candidate. Nonetheless, I think Senator Clinton has slight advantage.

Nebraska (31 Delegates): Having endorsed Obama, will Democratic Senator Ben Nelson be able to deliver the goods for his candidate? Given Nelson’s unusually high popularity in a very red state, I think he just might. I predict a slight advantage for Obama.

February 10

Maine (34 Delegates): Maine, along with Vermont, is one of the more progressive states in the country. On the other hand, two popular female Republican Senators demonstrate the state’s unique independence and feminist ties. This one could be too close to call.

February 12

Virginia (103 Delegates): Many people forget that Virginia elected the first African American governor, Douglas Wilder, who now serves as mayor of Richmond and is a strong Obama supporter. Of equal importance, almost 20 percent of Virginia’s population is African American, which again will contribute to Obama’s base. With the current governor, Tim Kaine, also supporting Obama, I have to give him the advantage.

Maryland (99 Delegates): With an extremely large and politically-active African American community, Maryland should be fertile ground for an Obama win. In addition, there is strong anti-war sentiment in Montgomery and Howard counties.


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Re: What Happens After Super Tuesday?

By Brandon, February 5, 2008 at 15:34

My predictions...

After Super Tuesday McCain will go on to campaign against all but eliminated Huckabee and Romney in order for the Republicans to stay in the media eye. Meanwhile, the two remaining equally unelectable democrats Hillary and Barack will continue to rip each other to shreds and embarass themselves. In November McCain will sweep to victory...

This will represent yet another completely incompetent election process by the Democratic Party. Yet again, faced with a situation where the election is ostensibly their's to lose, they find a way...

The utter disunity and chaos that reigns supreme in that party is mind boggling. Evidenced not only by the unelectable slate of candidates but the way the party handled Florida, the dems just don't have any chance.

We'd all love to live in a country where the two leading democratic candidates are electable, don't get me wrong. But if the dems couldn't take the south with a rich old white guy with a military past, how do they think Barack or Hillary will do, really? Which states that went with Bush last time are going to go with Barack now? Arizona? Arkansas? Ohio? California? Do the Democrats live in Canada? Barack would win Canada - that I'll grant. Heck, I'd vote for him. Of course - I'm not Florida now am I.